Gwajin A/B: Gwaje-gwaje wajen tura sakonnin yakin neman zabe

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Menene gwajin A/B

Lokacin da mambobin kwamitin yakin neman zaben Barack Obama a 2018 ke samun matsala wajen ganin cewa masu ziyartar shafinsu na yanar gizo na biyan kudi, sun yanke shawarar canza rubutun da ke kan shafin. Sun gwada salon rubutu daban-daban guda uku sabanin guda daya da suka saba na cewa ‘Yi Rijista. Salon uku sune: ‘Kara Sani’, ‘Shigo cikinmu yanzu’, ‘Yi Rijista Yanzu’. Sun gano cewa an fi shiga ‘Kara Sani’ fiye da na baya da kimanin kashi 18%. Yayinda suna sake gwada sabbin salon rubutun da hotuna shida da bidiyoyi, hakan ya sanya an samu karin mutane masu yin rijista a shafin da kashi 3%. Duk da cewa karin da aka samu bai da yawa, kwamitin yakin neman zaben sun ce a wannan karin kadai mutane milyan uku sun yi rijista kuma sun samu $60 million na kudin gudunmuwa. Shekaru hudu bayan hakan, kwamitin yakin neman tazarcen Obama ta sake kara gwajin A/B 500 a shafinta na yanar gizo da akwatin email na tsawon watanni 20, inda aka samu karin kudin gudunmuwa da kashi 29% kuma masu rijista da kashi 161%. Abinda gwajin A/B ke nufi shine gwada talla biyu ko fiye da haka domin sanin wanda zai fi karbuwa wajen jama’a. Masu yakin neman zabe na amfani da shi a shafukansu na neman gudunmuwa domin samun karin kudi daga mutane. A shekarar 2016, kwamitin yakin neman zaben shugaban kasan Ben Carson a Amurka ta gudanar da wannan gwaji domin sanin shin bayar da kyautan littafin Ben Carson zai fi kawo kudi ko bayar da kyautan hulan kamfe?. Ta hanyar aika mutane zuwa shafin bada kyautar hula ko kyautar littafi, kwamitin ta iya gano wanda ya fi tasiri. Da bada hulan ce tafi tasiri, da kwamitin ta kara wani gwajin hula da, misali, jaka domin cigaba da sanya mutane suna ziyartar shafin.

Duk da cewa gwajin A/B ya yawaita a yakin neman zabe yanzu, wannan hanya ta dade a tarihi tun shekarar 1920 lokacin da Bature masanin lissafin Ronald Fisher ya samar da lissafinta yayinda yake gwada yabanyar shuka a gonar da aka saka taki da kuma gonar da ba’a saka taki ba. Tun lokacin aka fara amfani da gwajin A/B wajen siyasa kuma ta zama ruwan dare a yakin neman zaben shafukan yanar gizo, akwatin email, kanun labarai, talabijin, rediyo, wayar tarho, har da tura sakonnin waya domin gane ainihin wanda ya kamata. Wasu kamfanoni sun sa gwajin A/B ya zama abu mai sauki ga masu yakin neman zabe, inda suke iya canji daban-daban akai-akai.

Ta yaya ake amfani da bayananka?

Masu yakin neman zabe sun dogara kan bayanan mutum wajen shiri da aiwatar da gwajin A/B. Da farko, suna amfani da su wajen zaben wanda ya cancanta ayi gwaji kansa. Idan masu yakin neman zabe na son gayyatar iyaye mata masu sana’a taron siyasa a wani yanki ko kuma kara yawan mahalartan wani taron, misali, za a iya gwajin ta hanyar amfani da adireshin da aka samu daga kundin zabe, ko ta wata hanyar daban. Muddin masu yakin neman zaben suna da isasshen adadin mutanen da zasu iya fara gwajin da su, babu iyaka ko karanci wajen gwaji, bisa ga dokoki. Hakazalika gwajin A/B na dogaro kan bayanan mutane wajen bibiyan amsoshinsu a gwaje-gwajen. Idan ka samu sakon email daga jirgin yakin neman zabe, akwai yiwuwan suna bibiyan akwatin sakonka domin ganin ko ka bude ko baka bude ba. Za a iya kara tace bayanan ta yadda idan ka cire adireshinka daga jerin da suke dashi, za a fahimici cewa da wuya ka zabi dan takarar. Amma idan ka cigaba da bude akwatin sakon, masu bibiyanka zasu fahimci cewa lallai za ka zabi dan takarar har kayi musu aikin sa kai.

Wasu misalai

A Birtanniya: Dominic Cummings, diraktan yakin neman zaben ‘Birtaniya ta fita’ daga gammayar kasashen Turai EU a shekarar 2016 (wacce aka fi sani da zaben Brexit), ya siffanta yadda masu yakin neman a fita sukayi amfani da bayanan mutane da gwaje-gwaje wajen samun nasara. A cewar Dominic Cummings, ta hanyar safiyo kan masu kada kuri’a a Birtaniya, masana kimiyar bayanan zabe sun iya wani abu kaman ‘a nemi mata masu shekaru 35 zuwa 45 dake zaune a wani yanki na musamman, wadanda basu da kwalin Digiri ko masu kwalin Digiri […] Mun gudanar da gwaje-gwaje iri-iri [….] kuma mun tace wanda yayi aiki’. Masu yakin neman ‘Birtaniya ta fita’ daga EU sun kasa masu zabe gida uku: wadanda zasu zabi a cigaba da zama cikin EU, wadanda zasu zabi a fita, da kuma marasa ra’ayi ko yan kallo. Masu yakin ganin Birtaniya ta fice daga EU sun kashe kashi 98% na kasafin kudinsu wajen mayar da hankali kan yan gidan na uku (yan kallo) kuma suka gwada abubuwa biyar akansu. Taken da akayi amfani da shi shine ‘muka kwato iko’. Bincike ya nuna cewa Kalmar ‘kwatowa’ ta tayar da hamasa cikin masu zabe inda suka fara ganin ashe an kwace musu wani abu ne a baya—wanda shine iko.

A kasar Amurka: Wasu masu yakin neman zabe a Amurka na amfani da gwajin A/B amma ba sosai ba idan aka hada su da kamfanoni masu zaman kansu. Sai a lokacin zaben yakin neman zaben shugaban kasan Donald Trump a 2016 hakan ya bayyana karara. Gary Coby, diraktan tallace-tallace da tara kudi wa kamfen Trump ya siffanta amfanin da gwajin da sukayi ‘gwajin A/B kan kwaya’ An ce sun yi amfani da gwajin kimanin 40,000 zuwa 50,000 a rana guda kuma gwaje-gwajen ya haifar da ‘da mai ido. A cewar Michael Babyak, tsohon diraktan fasahar tallace-tallace a taron gangamin jam’iyyar Republican. ‘Kwamitin habakawa da gwaje-gwaje ta gudanar da gwaji dama da 300 kan shafin DonaldJTrump.com daga Yuli zuwa Nuwamba 2016, kuma an samu Karin kudin shiga sama da $30 million.’ Kwamitin ta gano cewa sakonni yabon Trump na ‘doke duk wani sakonnin kokarin sukan Hillary Clinton (abokiyar hamayyarsa)’. A bayan zabe, a Mayun 2018, Coby ya alanta a Tuwita cewa har yanzu kwamitin yakin neman zaben na da tallace-tallace sama da 4000 domin gwaji, da tattara bayanan leken asiri zuwa bayan zabe.

Ta yaya zan sani idan ana amfani da gwajin a kai na?

Da wuya ka tsira daga amfani da gwajin A/B a kan ka. Kamar yadda shugaban OKCupid, Christian Rudder, ya rubuta a wani shafi a 2014: ‘Kalla, kowa da kowa: idan kana amfani da yanar gizo, kana cikin daruruwan gwaje-gwaje a koda yaushe, a kowace shafin yanar gizo. Haka shafukan yanar gizon ke aiki.’ Wani mai tsokaci ya kara cewa, ‘kowace haja, kowani dan siyasa, kungiyar agaji ko kungiyar fafutuka na amfani da tunaninka ta wani bangare, kuma suna gudanar da gwajin A/B domin sani.’ Gwajin A/B ya samu gindin zama cikin dukkan wani kamfani da ke da shafi a yanar gizo. Yayinda za ka iya gani wasu gwaje-gwajen da aka sanya ciki ta hanyar duba mahada ko kukis, babu yadda za ka taba iya sanin takamammen gwajin masu yakin neman zaben da aka sanya ka.

Abubuwan la’akari

↘ Gwajin A/B na baiwa masu yakin neman zabe daman gwada zatonsu da gudun HiPPO (Ra’ayin wanda yafi samun kudi), wani kalman isgili da ake amfani da shi wajen yanke shawara. Idan aka gwada wani sakon siyasa sosai, zai iya kawar da duk wani zato.

↘ Kamar yadda wani masani ya ce ‘A karshe, wannan abu da ake yi kan iya kai wa ga tura sakonni ga duk wani mai kada kuri’a ta hanyar sabunta gwajin A/B. Hakan na nufin cewa za a iya amfani da gwajin A/B wajen zaben wasu mutane don aika musu sako ba tare da la’akari da fahimtar siyasa kuma hakan zai bude kofar rufa-rufa da magudi.

↘ Yayinda aka fara shirya gwajin A/B yana yi da kansa, hanyoyin aikin na’ura na iya kirkiran banbanci da hade-haden rubutu, hotuna, bidiyoyi dss da yawa dangane da abinda ake bukata. Hakan na nufn cewa Injina ko na’urori – maimakon mutane- zasu rika gano abinda mai zabe ke karantawa kuma yake kallo, wanda zai sa a fara tattarar bayanan ra’ayin mutane ba tare dan Adam ya dub aba.

↘ Idan gwajin A/B ya bada ingancin da ake so, toh su masu zabe da aka fallasa bayansu wanda hakan na iya kai ga hanasu samun wasu wasiku, samun labaran siyasa, aikin sa kai ga wata jam’iyya ko zabe fa?

↘ Gaba daya masu zabe basu da masaniya game da amfani da su wajen gwaje-gwaje; bal ana bukatar sa hannun mutum ta hanyar wasu ka’idojin da zai amince ba tare karantawa ba. Sakamakon rashin wayewa nan, babu yadda mutum zai iya cire kansa. Bugu da kari, mutane da yawa basu san irin illan da wadannan gwaje-gwaje suka yi musu a baya ba.

↘ Sau da dama masu yakin neman zabe kan gudanar da gwaje-gwaje kan mutane ba tare da wani lura ba da yiwuwan yi abinda bai dace ba

Abubuwa la’akari ↘ Gwajin A/B zai iya zama filin gwaji ga yan siyasa – filin gwajin wani dabara yadda idan suka fadi su boye, amma idan sukayi nasara su cigaba.

↘Gwajin A/B kan kare dan siyasa daga fitowa mara ra’ayi kan wani lamari ta hanyar gwada ra’ayin mutane ta sakonni daban-daban da zaben ra’ayin da yayi rinjaye Wani marubuci yace, ‘maimakon neman shawara ko yanke wani shawara mai kasada, kawai zai yi amfani bayanan gwajin A/B domin neman mafita: “Ta wani dalili za kayi wani muhawara idan zaka iya gwaji?

↘Gwajin A/B na gwada kasada ‘kuma hakan na kashe tunanin mutum wajen jarraba abubuwa domin gane wanda zai aiki. ↘ Gwajin A/B na wahalar da bibiyan yadda ake yakin neman zabe. Maimakon mayar da hankali kan shafin yanar gizo daya, kungiyoyin bibiyan zasu raba hankulansu wajen duba rabe-raben shafin daban-daban.